Not-So-Quick Notes on Unit & Such

I don’t dislike what the Yankees got in return for Randy Johnson (Ohlendorf seems pretty decent, and Jackson supposedly has a wicked slider) but from what I read, it seems like they could have gotten a more major-league ready package (Dustin Nippert and/or Michah Owings and/or Brandon Medders) if they had kicked in more cash. In my opinion, the Yankees should be seeking deals that would bring them more high-end youngsters for just cash, not turning them down. Whether it’s international signings (Montero), or above-draft slot bonuses (Betances, Melancon), the Yankees should always seek to use their money to net youngsters. The RJ Trade seemed to present a similar opportunity (kick in ~$10M for better youngsters), instead they opted to keep the cash. Can’t say I understand why (even if it’s earmarked for Clemens). But, in the end, any time you can trade a 44-year-old $16M pitcher with a 5.00 ERA who’s coming off his second major surgery since turning 40, and you actually get some decent players in return, you really shouldn’t argue about it.

Doug Mientkiewicz is a decent option at first. The Yankees don’t need a bat, and actually, Dougie’s above-average ability to take walks is really all they might “need”. With this offense, I think I’d rather have Doug’s solid glove, .359 career OBP, and .91 BB/K ratio than Hillenbrand’s horrible glove, .325 career OBP, and .31 BB/K ratio. Also, it’s just a platoon situation - so that might help minimize any possible negatives. Plus, A-Rod will have a buddy in the locker room. However, given all that, I will still say that this time next year we will be talking about the “Failed Doug Mientkiewicz Experiment” and I will have learned to spell his name for nothing.

I’ve never been a big fan of Miguel Cairo, he’s overrated by Yankee fans because of his perceived “clutchiness”, and he just isn’t that good at anything. But he’s not really awful at anything (except taking walks), and really, he’s the backup infielder - who cares enough to complain? Plus, there might be a chance that Alberto Gonzalez (RJ Trade) will step up (he supposedly is a superb fielder) or maybe Andy “Organizational Guy” Cannizaro will be able to step in if something goes awry.

The same basically goes for Cashman’s decision (so far) to go with a Spring Training battle at backup catcher (Nieves and Chavez). I could complain about the lack of offensive production, and how the Yankees should have a more reliable backup behind an aging Posada, but it’s a waste of time/energy to complain about something so relatively insignificant, and given the lack of catching depth in the organization, I think this is something Cashman will be addressing soon enough.

I would be surprised if there are any more moves made (besides signing Clemens and/or Trading Pavano/Proctor/Vizcaino/Farnsworth). The Yankees have the kind of depth in the bullpen and rotation that demands patience - but if anything goes seriously wrong, Cash has the pieces to make a very productive mid-season move.

That’s all for now, but I might write up a more in-depth look at the RJ Trade/Mientkiewicz Signing, and I’ve been kicking around this Pro-Cashman rant that I’ll get up as soon as I’m satisfied with it.

Posted January 8th, 2007 at 10:54 pm by thelarkin | 8 Comments

What’s Left?

Rumors are swirling that the Yankees may be willing to deal Melky Cabrera (and an unknown prospect) for Pirates lefty closer Mike Gonzalez (or possibly as a three-way in which Melky+ end up in Atlanta and Adam LaRoche goes to Pitt). The Yankees have been looking for a reliable lefty setup man to compliment the Proctor/Farnsworth righty setup duo. They’re looking for a lefty who can also pitch to righties - someone who can be more than a Mike Myers. Ron Villone filled that role for much of the early parts of the season in 2006, but eventually fell apart and was terrible during the second half. Is Gonzalez what the Yankees are looking for? Is he worth giving up the Melkman? I’m not sure.

First of all, how good is Mike Gonzalez? Well, from 2004-2006 he recorded the following splits:

Pretty dominant against lefties, and very good against righties, with walks being the only real issue I can see. Seems like a pretty solid fit - a lefty who can pitch well against righties, and dominate lefties.

For a comparison, here’s Proctor and Farnsworth over the same time period:

If you adjust for the fact that Gonzalez has pitched in the NL his entire career, I’d say that he ends up being just slightly better than Farnsworth against righties - but pretty similar (issues with walks).

But there’s another area in which Gonzalez is very Farnsworthian: Innings per Appearance.

First of all, does anyone else find it odd that Farnsworth has made exactly 72 appearances in each of his last 3 seasons? They’re both one-inning pitchers at best. Gonzalez’s 54 appearances (and innings) were a career high for him, and he missed the last month with tendonitis. His performance matches up with what the Yankees are looking for, but his durability issue likely wouldn’t help the Yankee bullpen.

For the last few years, one of the Yankees biggest problems has been the over-working of the bullpen. With a 2007 rotation that includes Mike Mussina (groin), Andy Pettitte (elbow), Randy Johnson (back), and possibly Carl Pavano (head) - that’s a problem that likely won’t go away any time soon. As such, the Yankees should be seeking an innings-eater in the bullpen, someone who can take some of the workload off Proctor. It seems to me that if Gonzalez were a Yankee, he’d only contribute to the problem by being a left-handed Kyle Farnsworth.

This thing about getting a lefty for the sake of having one is ridiculous. The Angels bullpen of the past few years has dominated without ever having a good lefty. The Yanks just need someone who can admirably eat innings. A “Scott Proctor II” if you will. If they’re so desperate for a lefty, Kei Igawa might be able to fill that role. Brian Bruney or Chris Britton or TJ Beam or JB Cox could fill that role if they would just get over the whole lefty thing.

Case in point, last year’s splits for the Yanks’ top two setup men:

See, sometimes, righties can get lefties out. If anything, they needed help against their own kind. Gonzalez would be a fine setup man for the Yankees, but I don’t think he’s what this bullpen needs. I really don’t think this bullpen needs anything right now - there are (or will be) so many bullpen options available that, given time, it will work out - no need to force it and lose my favorite Yankee in the process.

Late Edit-in: Just to re-re-inforce the “Yankees don’t need a lefty” argument: The Yankees 2006 pitching staff was #3 in MLB in Batting Average Allowed against Lefties (.251), they were tied for #1 in OBP Allowed against Lefties (.316), and came in #2 in SLG Allowed against lefties (.395), and #1 in OPS Allowed against Lefties (.711). And that’s with an ineffective Mike Myers. With a 2007 pitching staff that has become decidely more left handed (Pettite and Igawa), I doubt that there’s really a need for someone like Gonzalez.

Then again, all this might just be a rumor. And despite the supposed “seriousness” with which this is being discussed, I really doubt it happens. Just a few weeks ago, the Pirates thought LaRoche wasn’t enough, and recently asked for Victor Martinez in exchange for Gonzalez from the Indians, while declining a Chad Tracy offer from the D-Backs. The Braves, meanwhile, had entertained a Kotchman/Figgins package from Anaheim and a Hayden Penn/Brian Roberts package from Baltimore (Marcus Giles would have been included). It seems to me that both of these teams could find more significant returns if they shopped elsewhere. I can’t believe the Pirates would demand Victor Martinez, and then settle for Melky. Nothing against Melky, but he isn’t in the same category as some of the names being linked to Gonzalez/LaRoche.

Posted December 16th, 2006 at 4:32 pm by thelarkin | 6 Comments

Pettitte Deal Puts New Perspective on Igawa Bid

As you probably don’t remember, I was struggling to understand why Brian Cashman would bid $26M for what he considered to be a back-end starter. In the end, the total value of the Igawa signing should be $42M at least ($26M bid + ~$16M/4yr contract) - and with a proven AL East starter like Ted Lilly available for a $40M investment, it seemed a bit odd that that Cashman would consider Igawa the smarter play. But the recent signing of Andy Pettitte opened my eyes to what Cashman was thinking.

Cashman came into this offseason trying to accomplish two very different objectives: 1) Lower payroll. 2) Remain a top-tier team. Most teams would consider this an impossibility, but the Yankees’ deep pockets can make anything possible. This may rank as one of the craziest/dumbest things you’ve ever read, but give me a chance to explain myself: Brian Cashman is going to lower payroll by spending lots of money.

OK, OK, maybe I should clarify that - Brian Cashman is going to lower future payrolls by spending lots of money today. It’s likely his goal to one day (2010?) get the Yankees under the Luxury Tax cap - something that simply cannot be done this year or next year. With bloated contracts all over the place, it would be almost impossible to get under the cap within two years. But after 2008, when Mussina, Pavano, Giambi, Farnsworth, Randy Johnson (after ‘07) and their $50M is off the books, and an influx of young players take their roster spots, the Yankees will have a shot at being Luxury Tax-free. Knowing that the Yankees have no chance at dipping under the tax within the next two years, Cashman is willing to spend whatever it takes on short-term deals to keep the Yankees competitive during the transition. Short-term spending, like the Pettitte deal and the Igawa bid, keeps the Yankees stocked with the pitching they need to contend, while not effecting their budgets for 2009 and beyond. It’s like they operate under two different budgets: one (seemingly limitless) for 2007-2008, and one (designed to get under the LT) for 2009+.

A little example: Cashman has been criticized by some (not many, but some - I was one of them) for the Igawa and Pettitte moves. Igawa’s contract + posting fee figure to have an average annual value of about $11M, while the Yankees are paying Pettitte $16M per year. That’s $27M per year that they’re “throwing away” on a back-end starter and a #2/3. For that kind of money, they could probably sign Zito and Lilly. This is true, if you assume that the Yankees value each year equally - but they don’t. As I explained earlier, what they spend in 2007-2008 is not as important to them as what they will spend in 2009+. For the Yankees, the value of a dollar in 2009 is much greater than the value of a dollar in 2007: spending $16M in 2007 is just fine - spending $16M in 2009 is a no-no.

With Zito and Lilly the Yankees would spend $27M in 2007, $27M in 2008, $27M in 2009, and $27M in 2010 (and $17M for however many more years they would have Zito). With Pettitte and Igawa, the Yanks spend $47M in 2007, $20M in 2008, $4M in 2009, and $4M in 2010. By “not caring” what they spend today, the Yankees end up saving a lot of money in 2008 and 2009, while maintaining an adequate rotation. Comparing Pettitte or Igawa to Lilly one-on-one yields smaller, but significant savings as well.

Now, you may find yourself saying: Yes, that’s true, but what about the (debatable) drop-off in talent from Zito/Lilly to Pettite/Igawa. The Yankees are willing to trade the talent drop-off for increased financial flexibility, as well as increased roster flexibility. With promising youngsters like Hughes, Sanchez, Clippard, Chamberlain, Betances, etc. waiting in the wings, the Yankees probably wouldn’t even have a place for Zito/Lilly in 2010. If they need to dump Igawa by then, his low salary and left-handedness should make him easy to move. The Pettite\Igawa combo leaves the door wide open for those kids. And kids come cheap, and cheap is what they’re after.

Some have accused Cashman of “Voodoo Economics” for the way he’s defended his seemingly expensive signings. It’s not Voodoo Economics, it’s Economics Economics.

Posted December 11th, 2006 at 11:23 pm by thelarkin | 8 Comments

Book Review: The Best New York Sports Arguments

I’ve been meaning to try my hand at doing some book reviews, and I finally decided to give it a shot. I’ll be reviewing The Best New York Sports Arguments: The 100 Most Controversial, Debatable Questions for Die-Hard New York Fans, by Yahoo! Sports columnist Peter Handrinos. This is a Yankees baseball blog, so of course I tend to focus on that in the review, but the other sections contain some great reads, too. So, here’s my first attempt at any kind of a book report since about the sixth grade…

The Best New York Sports Arguments isn’t just another of those “10 Best This” or “25 Worst That” kind of books - it’s much more. It’s not just a regurgitation of the events/players/teams that we all know, it’s a sports history lesson - providing insights into the sports-lives of people like Allie Reynolds, John McGraw, Casey Stengel, Lou Gehrig, and contemporaries like Jeter and A-Rod, too.

The book is filled with a variety of topics, ranging from superlatives (”What were the coolest nicknames of all time?”) to myth-busters (”Who was the real goat of the Dodgers’ pennant collapse in ‘51?”) to hypotheticals (”What would have happened if Jackie Robinson failed?”). Handrinos also breaks down some of the intriguing “Who’s better?” debates in sports - Ruth v. Bonds, Ruth v. Jordan, Gehrig v. Ripken, and of course Jeter v. A-Rod. The arguments are well supported and occasionally pretty creative (A-Rod is actually a better leader than Jeter?), and the analysis never gets too complicated. Today’s sports books are often filled with over-analysis, and can occasionally turn into a math lesson. Handrinos avoids this, and remains accessible - preferring to use common stats (nothing more complicated than OPS) to support his opinions.

It’s a New York book written in the language of New Yorkers - contentious, opinionated and uncompromising. To that end, some of the more debate-worthy Yankee chapters include:

Perhaps the most interesting thing about the book is that Handrinos rarely comes down on the side you think he would/should. You may find yourself a bit surprised with what he has to say about guys like Maris and Jeter.

And that’s just the baseball section. There are also (smaller) sections on New York Football, Basketball, Hockey, Tennis, Horseracing, and Boxing. Some of the more interesting chapters from those sections include:

For many of the chapters, Handrinos focuses only on one person/event/story without ever really giving any consideration to other possibilities. The “Most Underrated Yankee” topic in particular has the potential to be an eye-opening and informative chapter about the various lesser-knowns who have succeeded in Pinstripes, but instead you get a few pages about Allie Reynolds. The Reynolds info is great and informative, but I would have liked to see a few more names discussed.

Also, the Baseball section dominates the book – probably because baseball has a longer history than the other major sports, but I think there might be a lot of sports fans out there who would like to see more football (and basketball) topics covered. I’m not one of them, but the book did seem very baseball-heavy.

On the whole, however, it’s definitely a good read, and very well researched. It’s got something for everyone who is interested in New York sports, and Handrinos’ opinions are sure to fire up some debate.

You can find out more about the book at the United States of Baseball.

Posted December 4th, 2006 at 9:58 pm by thelarkin | 1 Comment

Yanks Win Igawa Bidding

The Yankees have reportedly won the rights to negotiate with Japanese lefty Kei Igawa with a bid of $25 million.

Can’t say I like this move. I haven’t heard that many great things about Igawa - who’s been described as a 27-year-old Japanese version of Jarrod Washburn - so I really don’t understand why the Yankees threw $25M to the Hanshin Tigers for the right to talk with Igawa. There’s nothing specifically wrong with Igawa, but he’s being described as fairly average - fastball sits at about 88-92, above-average change (~78), and a decent slider that was called flat by David Wright a few months ago. He is reportedly seeking a deal worth less than the deals being sought by 2nd-tier free agents Ted Lilly and Gil Meche (who are looking for something in the $8-10M/yr range). If everything shakes out as it’s being reported and suggested, Lilly and Meche will probably reach deals at around 4-years/$40M, while Igawa might sign a 3-year/$21M deal.

Now, many will look at that and say $25M / 3-years = $8.33M/yr in posting fees, plus another $7M/yr from the contract - that’s more than $15M/yr for the “Japanese Jarrod Washburn?!?!?” The Yanks could sign Zito for that!

Not completely true - the $25M doesn’t mean that much to the Yankees. It’s a lot of money, yes, but in the grand scheme of things it’s really just a one-time fee, and it could be reduced to facilitate a deal (something the Red Sox are trying to do in the Matsuzaka negotiations), it doesn’t count towards the payroll and it doesn’t count against the Luxury Tax. All in all, if the Yankees sign Igawa at 3-yrs/$21M - he’ll end up costing about ~$10M/yr once the Luxury Tax is factored in (40%).
Since the Yankees are apparently interested in lefties first, let’s compare that to Ted Lilly. If the Yankees were to sign Ted Lilly at 4-yrs/$40M - he’d end up costing about $14M/yr. So we’re talking about $4M here.

Igawa is younger and has pretty solid reputation coming out of Japan (he’s known as a strikeout pitcher despite his lack of true heat), and is a pretty decent innings eater. But he’s never pitched in the majors (obviously), and coming from Japan means that he’s used to a 6-man rotation. Scouting reports say he could run into trouble with his control, and could see his fastball crushed (despite the fact that he’s been pretty good at limiting his HRs in Japan) while in the States.

Lilly, 31 in January, has not only pitched in the majors, but he’s pitched in the AL - in the AL East, and in New York, for the Yankees - and he’s pitched well against the Red Sox. That’s like half the battle right there. Lilly, too, has control issues at times, and has had his share of injury concerns, and has never pitched 200 innings in a season. Lilly also posted a less-than-awe-inspiring 4.31 ERA last season. But are these concerns really enough to warrant forgoing Lilly in favor of Igawa just to save $4M? Personally, I don’t think so.

If the Yankees had lost out on Lilly or had decided against spending near-double digits on a mid-range starter, I could understand. But throwing out a $25M bid and (potentially) another $21M in salary means that they’re willing to spend a decent amount on adding another starter. If that’s the case - why not go for Lilly (or even Meche) who have at least pitched in this league/hemisphere?

Matsuzaka was worth the risk - he has great stuff and the potential to be a young top-end starter. Igawa doesn’t have the stuff and he doesn’t have the potential - he’s not worth the risk. I really don’t understand this one.

Then again, this whole post could become a moot point if the Yankees can cut some kind of deal to lower their costs. But the way the money works out right now, it seems to me that the Yanks would have been better off spending this money on Lilly.

Late Add-in thought: If you think the Yankees did this to avoid losing draft picks in the event of a Lilly/Meche signing: Nope. Lilly and Meche are Type B free agents, and the new CBA says that the signing team doesn’t lose a pick for Type B - the former team just gets an added sandwich pick.

Posted November 28th, 2006 at 9:01 pm by thelarkin | No Comments

Annnd We’re Back…

Had some hosting issues that I couldn’t get resolved as quickly because I finally have a job - and that combined with sheer laziness has left me without a post in more than a month…

Yes, it’s disappointing that the Yanks lost out on Matsuzaka, and even more so that they lost him to the Red Sox - but there’s no blame to be doled out. The Sox bid of $51.1M was the kind of bid that would guarantee that they win the rights to Matsuzaka. Why make such a guarantee bid? Blocking the Yankees certainly played a role, as did expanding the Sox’ market to Japan - either way, it will leave the Yankees scrambling for an alternative.

So where do the Yanks go from here?

(1) Make a trade for a top-tier starter in exchange for a big prospect package or A-Rod

(2) Sign Zito or Schmidt (likely 4-5 years @ ~$15M per)

(3) Make a trade for a #3-Type starter (Freddy Garcia?) in exchange for a few prospects (Sanchez?)

(4) Sign Ted Lilly or Gil Meche or Andy Pettite, probably $7-$9M per for at least 3 years (Pettite might take a 1 or 2 year deal)

(5) Sign a lower-tier starter to compete with the existing pool of Pavano, Karstens, Rasner, Proctor, Hughes, Sanchez, Clippard - someone like Jason Marquis, Tomo Ohka, or even Mark Mulder. Who knows what they’ll get, but it’ll likely be in the $4-$6M range. There’s no real point, but it would provide some “veteran insurance”.

(6) Don’t do anything. Let Johnson, Pavano, Karstens, Rasner, Proctor, Hughes, Sanchez, Clippard, and maybe Steven White battle for the remaining THREE open rotation spots.

First off, let me say that I do not believe that Scott Proctor is a real option for the rotation. Cashman is probably just using Proctor as this year’s Bubba Crosby (”I’m fine with Bubba in center.”). Besides, he essentially did the same thing last year, with Proctor slated to start for Columbus before a bullpen spot opened. It’s a risk-free move, and might actually make Proctor a better pitcher (preparing to start should force him to focus more on his breaking ball).

Second, there’s the 800 lb. gorilla in the room - Trading A-Rod. With Soriano’s monster deal, A-Rod’s deal is looking more like a bargain, especially when you throw in the fact that Texas is already eating a chunk of it. Now more than ever, the Yankees could look to deal A-Rod in exchange for some young pitching, and maybe a young corner-infielder or two. Whoever loses out on the Carlos Lee sweepstakes (Houston and Anaheim) could come begging the Yankees for A-Rod’s services. If the Yankees can find a suitable third base replacement (Joe Crede’s back problems worry me), trading A-Rod could bring back the pieces the Yankees need right now. It’s worth considering, but not worth doing if the right deal isn’t there.

Lastly, there is someone out there who’s name hasn’t been mentioned who might have a big impact on how the Yankees navigate this off-season… and that’s Carlos Zambrano. Zambrano is young, has a power arm, is a proven top-of-the-rotation starter, and will be a free agent after this year. Conveniently, Zambrano’s free agency coincides with the Yankees clearing $16M of payroll (Randy Johnson). This should put the Yanks in prime position to sign Zambrano long-term. Zambrano would give the Yanks the ace they need to stabilize their rotation for years and take pressure off of Hughes, Wang, and all the other youngsters - they won’t need to worry about being #1. It also means that a few of the Yankees pitching prospects (not named Hughes) become a bit more expendable. Signing Zambrano in 2008 isn’t necessary, but it’s basically one move that makes a lot of the pitching questions disappear.

With that in mind, I don’t think the Yankees can pursue Zito/Schmidt - they’ve got to save room for Zambrano next year. And so, the best option might be to “tread water” (a Cashman specialty), until you can completely re-tool the rotation in 2008. The Yanks shouldn’t be looking to go after an expensive #1 or #2 - that opportunity passed with Matsuzaka - instead, let Mussina hold at #2, and sign someone to compete with Pavano(if healthy)/RJ(if healthy) for the #3 spot, while the rest fight over the bottom of the rotation.

To that end, it appears that the Yanks will make an offer to Ted Lilly. If it’s something like 3-years and ~$24M, I can live with it - he’s not worth nearly that much, but that’s the market right now, and Lilly could at least provide some sense of stability (even though he’s had his injury problems).

So long as they don’t over commit themselves, the Yanks should be able to build one amazing rotation in the years going forward:

They’re already stockpiling young bullpen arms, and an established young rotation would mean guys like Joba Chamberlain would have to become a reliever or trade bait. Good young pitching - that’s the kind of thing you build a dynasty on. In order to allow that to happen, the Yanks have to be careful about what they do now - they can’t overspend and they can’t make expensive trades.

Posted November 21st, 2006 at 10:37 pm by thelarkin | 8 Comments

Trade-Rod and Matsu-Mania

I’m beginning to convince myself that trading Alex Rodriguez may be a good thing. Not because of what A-Rod has or has not done in pinstripes, but because of what he could bring back in a trade. The Yankees need young starters and A-Rod could definitely get them that and then some.

The biggest obstacle to trading A-Rod is A-Rod and his no-trade clause. Given the media attention on him, there are only two reasons A-Rod could use to explain why he accepted a trade: (1) “I can’t handle New York.” or (2) “I feel that this trade helps the Yankees.” Using excuse (1) is not something A-Rod, or anyone, would do in this situation. That leaves (2). In order to use (2) the return on the trade has to be big enough so that A-Rod saves face. Even then, people would probably still see the trade as a “Get A-Rod out of New York” deal. So it would have to be REALLY GOOD, like no-brainer good.

The other order of business is Daisuke Matsuzaka. The rights to sign Matsuzaka will be up for sale this off-season, and the Yankees are expected to be the favorites in landing the Japanese pitching legend (yes, legend).

There seems to be a lot of hesitation about signing Matsuzaka: “It’s too risky. What if he turns out to be Hideki Irabu?” They’re right. Matsuzaka is a risk - you DON’T know how he’s going to perform in the big leagues, let alone New York. But is the steadily-declining Barry Zito really less of a risk (especially considering the length of the contract it would require to sign him)? Is NL-only pitcher Jason Schmidt less of a risk? Is one-year Seattle quasi-wonder Gil Meche any less of a risk? What about the ever-inconsistent Jason Marquis? Or the oft-injured Kerry Wood? Or anyone else out there? Have the Yankees ever signed someone that everyone thought would succeed? Has anyone ever done that?

Yes it’s a risk; of course it’s a risk. But if you consider the Japanese leagues to be equivalent to AAA (or even a level above, as some do), then you should probably see Matsuzaka as the best major league ready pitching prospect in the world. If you are against the idea of adding such a player to the Yankees, then I think you may be just a bit too risk-averse. As a team that has supposedly limitless resources, shouldn’t the Yankees pursue such risks? Isn’t that what they should be doing with all that money instead of paying for guys like Zito and Schmidt who are about to pass their primes (if they haven’t already)? I know that Matsuzaka is a risk, but I am willing to take that risk - especially since this is the Yankees and they can afford it.

Posted October 10th, 2006 at 9:06 pm by thelarkin | 18 Comments

Joe’s Coming Back

According to Peter Abraham, ESPN News, WFAN and everyone else out there, Joe Torre has said in his press conference that he will be returning as Yankee manager next season.

Personally, I’m relieved. Not necessarily because I’m a Joe Torre fan (I can’t stand his bullpen usage), but more because I saw this whole “Fire Torre” thing as a battleground in the ongoing struggle for power between Old “King George” Steinbrenner/Tampa and Cashman/Swindal/New York. The fact that Torre is sticking around is a victory for the Cashman faction, and an indicator that Cash still has some control over what happens in this organization. Rumor is that it was Steve Swindal that did most of the work - talking George down from his post-ALDS rage.

To me, that bodes well for the future - Swindal (George’s son-in-law) is George’s successor and will be taking over the reigns sometime in the relatively near future - and it seems like Swindal is a level-headed guy (plus, he’s on Cashman’s side). Being a big Cashman supporter, all I ask of this organization is that Cashman be given every opportunity to run this team the way he wants. If in a few years it’s a failure - fine, move in a different direction - but for now, I think Cash is on the right track and should be allowed to continue unhindered. The fact that George was talked down off that ledge tells me that this team is still being run by Cashman.

Posted October 10th, 2006 at 1:40 pm by thelarkin | 2 Comments

It’s Over

I could write some big long post analyzing and dissecting, picking apart the failures that have lead to the end of a very promising season, but there’s really no point. They lost. Nothing can be done to change that, and, really, there’s about 500 different possible explanations as to why it happened, but they’re all meaningless because it did happen. The only reasonable thing we can do as fans is to move on - look to next year - focus on Hughes & Co, because those are the only things likely to enspire positive thoughts over the next few weeks. In keeping with the move-on idea, I’ll try to make a few off-season predictions…

I’ll start it off with a bang: Alex Rodriguez will be asked to waive his no-trade clause. If he says yes, he’s off to Los Angeles. If he says no, this season’s fan/media scrutiny will be nothing compared to 2007 - it won’t be pretty. If he sticks it out through all that, you have to give him some credit - or call him insane - but it likely won’t be good for the team. A-Rod’s departure will have less to do with his performance and more to do with the perception of that performance - he’ll be forced out by the fans/media not the front office. I don’t think it’s something Cashman wants to do, but it will be something he has to do because the alternative is to carry a player that is hated/resented by his own fans - can’t have that. A trade with either LA team could bring a healthy set of prospects (hopefully including a young arm and a young catcher). Personally, a signifcant part of me wants A-Rod to go to Anaheim and immediately win a World Series - including a great ALCS performance against the Yankees. It seems wrong to say as a die-hard Yankee fan, but I feel like after the last three years here, that would be the ultimate payback for him - and a very large part of me wants to see A-Rod do well, even if it’s not for the Yanks.

Mike Mussina’s return is no longer set in stone - there will be serious internal debate about re-signing Moose. That indecisiveness may lead to him signing elsewhere (Philly?). Ultimately, if he really, really wants to return to New York, he will.

There will be some debate (depending on who the Yanks get for A-Rod) about moving Robbie Cano (back?) to third. I like Cano’s play at second, but if A-Rod is gone, this could be worth a look.

Daisuke Matsuzaka and Barry Zito will be heavily pursued. Both of them may be scared off by the idea of pitching in New York. If the Yankees win the posting bid for Matsuzaka, they’ll go as far as it takes (salary-wise) to land him. Ted Lilly may be a solid backup plan, but may be hesitant to return to the team that traded him. Stay away from Andy Pettitte as if he has the plague.

Joe Torre will be nudged out the door. He will not be fired. He’ll be secretly asked to leave. Much like A-Rod, the decision will ultimately be his - if he accepts it, he’ll leave. You can’t fire Torre because of the relationship he has with Jeter, Posada, and Rivera - you do not want to upset those three. Potential replacements range from Bobby Valentine and Lou Pinella to Don Mattingly and Joe Girardi and everyone in between.

Bernie Williams will be similarly nudged out the door in order to make sure that Melky Cabrera gets his at-bats - unless Bernie is truly ready to accept an extremely limited 5th OF role.

I don’t think there will be much tinkering with the bullpen, unless someone big is brought in by a trade (Scot Shields?). Proctor, Bruney, Farnsworth and JB Cox seem like a decent enough foundation. Actually, Farnsworth could be traded, I guess.

Gary Sheffield will not return. He needed a big post-season to even have his option considered. Jaret Wright was under similar circumstances. The big question about Wright is that buying his option will cost $4M - and his salary is $7M - is he really not worth a $3M gamble? It’s possible - but the money factor also makes it possible that the pick him up and trade him or convert him to a reliever.

Cory Lidle, Craig Wilson, Sal Fasano - gone. Aaron Guiel could, in theory, make a bid for a 1B/OF role, but that’s unlikely. Andy Phillips’ storied pinstriped days are likely over as well. Ron Villone - who knows? He was arguably their best middle reliever through a signifcant part of the season, but that was overshadowed by a bad month+ at the end of the season.

This may make me sound like a sore loser, but I really think that it’s just a matter of time before the Divison Series becomes a 7 game series. There’s really no reason, money-wise especially, to have it be 5 games - more games, more money. That is unless they’re comitted to having upsets and in reality, upsets don’t help MLB/FOX financially - Tigers fans may be great, but fewer people will watch A’s-Tigers than A’s-Yankees. Again, I’m not trying to be a sore loser - I just think this change is inevitable.

As with every off-season (and especially those following a disappointing season) the direction of the team depends entirely on how much decision-making power George Steinbrenner decides to wield. If King George returns, all bets are off - anything goes and everyone could go. If Cashman doesn’t lose faith in his philosophy, he’ll stay small (except for A-Rod), and try to feed off the farm system. Guys like Jeff Karstens, Darrell Rasner, JB Cox, Philip Hughes and Tyler Clippard are praying that Cashman stays the course. I am too.

Posted October 7th, 2006 at 8:31 pm by thelarkin | 6 Comments

ALDS: Yanks-Tigers Preview

Ok, so I’ve put this off long enough, and the clocks ticking down to zero, so I might as well get on with it…

Gotta say I’m glad the Yankees are playing the Tigers not the Twins. Facing Johan 2 out of 5 is a scary thought (although Oakland seems to be faring pretty well right now). The Yanks would have been 7-0 against the Tigers this year if not for two non-appearances by an ailing Mariano Rivera. Farnsworth blew a save back in late May, and Proctor blew another in late August.

Joe Torre announced that the lineup (for game 1 at least) will be: Damon-Jeter-Abreu-Sheffield-Giambi-Rodriguez-Matsui-Posada-Cano

Some controversy in Joe’s pick of Sheffield at #4, with A-Rod being dropped to #6. Putting Sheff in the cleanup spot makes sense - when he’s on (and he definately seemed on in the last few games of the season) he’s the most dangerous hitter in the lineup. Sixth is then the only place to put A-Rod in order to maintain the Lefty-Righty alternating lineup that Torre loves so much. Dropping A-Rod down a bit also helps relieve some pressure on the much maligned thirdbaseman, who, whether he admits it or not, could probably use some of the psychological relief that comes with batting lower in the order. With all that said, this is probably the most devastating lineup ever to hit the postseason. The fact that the only thing resembling an out is the rejuvinated veteran catcher enjoying a very solid renaissance season, and the line drive hitting sophomore second baseman who nearly stole a batting title should scare any pitcher.
Game 1 - Nate Robertson (13-13, 3.84) vs Chien-Ming Wang (19-6, 3.63) - Tuesday, 8:19 PM FOX

Robertson was 0-2 in two starts against the Yankees this year with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. The Yankees are 31-17 (.646) against lefty starters this year, and 66-48 (.579) against righties. A bit odd considering that the Yanks don’t hit any better against lefties: .280/.364/.435 vs Lefties, .286/.362/.471 vs Righties. The one thing about the Yankees’ left handed batters is that they’re all very good at hitting the ball the other way (with the notable exception of Jason Giambi who refuses to do anything but pull), which helps in those lefty-lefty matchups. Johnny Damon’s been struggling of late, and his performance against Robertson could be key.

Chien-Ming Wang was 1-0 in 2 starts against Detroit with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Detroit seems like a good matchup vs. Wang and his power sinker. The Tigers were the 2nd worst walk-taking team in the AL (just ahead of Seattle) - they go to the plate hacking. If Wang can locate his sinker, this could be a very quick game. Against the 5 worst walk-taking teams in the AL (Seattle, Detroit, Tampa, KC, Baltimore) Wang is 9-1 in 14 starts with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. The big factor here, though, is that Wang is pitching in New York - where his ERA is 1.32 points better - and I think that helps the sophomore get through his first big Game 1 start.

Prediction: Yankees Win.

Game 2 - Justin Verlander (17-9, 3.63) vs Mike Mussina (15-7, 3.51) - Wednesday, 8:00 PM ESPN

Verlander recorded a no-decision in his one start against the Yankees this year. He surrendered 6 earned runs over 5 innings, giving up 7 hits, walking 4, and striking out 4, he also gave up a homer to Giambi. Robinson Cano in particular had a good game - 4-for-5. Verlander hasn’t started since Sept. 24, as he was given some time to rest up for the playoffs. In 5 September starts, Verlander was 2-2 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Some question whether or not the young Verlander has anything left in the tank.

Mussina was excellent in his one start against Detroit - throwing a complete game 6 hitter on May 31 in Detroit. Moose gave up one unearned run on a throwing error by none other than A-Rod, which killed his shutout. If Moose has had a (non-physical) problem on the mound this year it has been dealing with errors. Moose has allowed 11 unearned runs this year, the most of his career (9 in 1999 was his previous high). Moose looked sharp in his last start, and should have a good time against the free-swinging Tigers, as he did back in May. If he’s sharp, Moose’s ability to out-think hitters should help him thrive Wednesday night. Oh and the best part about Game 2: I’ll be there. And that’s enough to get the Yanks a Win.

Prediction: Yankees Win.

Game 3 - Randy Johnson (17-11, 5.00) vs Kenny Rogers (17-8, 3.84) - Friday ,8:00 PM ESPN

43 and 41, those might be the most important numbers regarding Game 3. They’re the ages of the two starters, Randy Johnson, and Kenny Rogers, respectively.

Rogers hasn’t faced the Yankees since June 4, 2004 when he was a member of the Texas Rangers. He got shelled that day, giving up 6 ER, 8 H, 4 BB, 3 K and 5 HR over 4 innings, and managed to take a no-decision in what would eventually be a loss for the Rangers. Bernie, A-Rod, Sheff, Matsui, and Enrique Wilson all homered off Rogers in that game. But that was 2+ years ago. Rogers has been very solid for the Tigers, at times their Ace, and he finished the season strong: 3-1, with a 2.79 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 6 September starts.

Randy Johnson was questionable as the Game 3 starter until just recently, and his availability is still pending a bullpen session on Wednesday. The Big Unit was 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in 2 starts against Detroit this year, and finished the season 2-1 with 5.47 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 4 September starts. Assuming Randy is healthy enough to pitch, and pitch the way he has all year, he still could be in trouble. RJ was very successful against lefties this year (and every year), but his problems came against right handed batters. The problem is that the Tigers lack dangerous left handed hitters - a fact that should be an asset against Johnson.

Questions about RJ’s health, as well as questions against the righty-dominated lineup mean that I might pick against the Yankees here. Then again, I think the Mega-lineup of the Yankees will probably tee off against Rogers. Comerica Park should be rocking for the first playoff game in two decades, so I’ll give Detroit the final edge.

Prediction: Tigers Win.

I’m a bit of a superstitious guy, so I won’t preview Game 4 until I know it’s going to happen. If Game 4 becomes necessary, I’ll post a preview.

Posted October 3rd, 2006 at 2:53 pm by thelarkin | 4 Comments
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